Innovative Forecast- and Demand-adjustment applying new Information Technologies


Overproduction, high inventory, a lot of overtime but still a low service level performance and high costs for express delivery are problems that Austrian manufacturers face. All these factors lead to an inefficient usage of the resources. The interaction of sales and operations planning which is effected by information uncertainty strongly influences these key figures and, therefore, the competitiveness of Austrian companies in a global market. The aim of the project InnoFIT is to analyze, to visualize and to develop mathematical models describing the information uncertainty in forecast and demand. For this purpose, the improvement potential of new information technologies applied in supplier portals between supplier and customer within the hierarchical production planning process will be exploited. The fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) leads to a development boost especially in information technology concerning the supplier-customer relationship. This new information within the supply chain in general can improve the performance of manufacturing companies. Nevertheless, these improvement potentials are not yet exploited in practical applications related to the forecasting process although all information would be available in companies’ ERP-systems. Therefore, analytic tools to analyze forecast quality and information dynamics are developed in the proposed project. These tools support practitioners in the operational decisions, such as the adaption of forecasts or strategic make-to-order versus make-to-stock planning decisions. The developed analytic tools improve the logistic performance of Austrian manufacturers, which means that, for example, a good service level can be maintained with less inventory and lower resource consumption. The exemplary calculation (see chapter 3), using real data of a project partner shows, for rather optimistic assumptions, an annual cost saving potential of 80.000€. In pilot projects with limited scope at the project partners NKE, Lecapell, ZF and MWS the developed methods are tested for their practical relevance and improvement potential. The project partner RISC Software ensures the practical applicability of the developed tools. The results are disseminated to Austrian companies through an open access manual for forecast quality and information dynamics. After the project, RISC Software will further improve the tools, e.g. developing an ERP Add-On, to get a prototype status.

Research program

FFG Produktion der Zukunft

Dieses Projekt wird im Rahmen des Programms Produktion der Zukunft durch das Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Innovation und Technologie gefördert.

J. Nurgazina, T. Felberbauer, K. Altendorfer, S. Zeiml - Visualization and Analysis of Customer Provided Forecasts - 18. ASIM Dedicated Conference, Chemnitz, Germany, 2019, pp. 445-454 more